Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or any other advice and is solely the opinion of the author
- Monero [XMR] recorded conflicting trends in different time frames
- The recent break in structure on the lower time frame meant that the market may have shown its hand
Monero [XMR] registered a bearish trajectory on the higher time frame charts. In contrast, it posted significant gains of 9.14% over the past four days before being rejected around the $155 zone. But is this a sign that sellers are gaining strength or can bulls expect even more gains?
Read Moneros [XMR] Price Forecast 2023-24
Bitcoin will likely have something to say as well, but the price action showed that XMR is likely to recoup the gains it has made over the past four days.
Despite the $144 bounce, the bias has shifted to bearish favor
Source: XMR/USDT on TradingView
The Visible Range Volume Profile tool highlighted three levels of importance. The Value Area High and Low at $153 and $149 respectively, and the Point of Control at $151.1. At the time of writing, the price shot north after approaching the POC as support.
While the $144 bounce was strong, recent price action revealed that bears have taken control. The break in the market structure highlighted in orange showed a shift in preference for the lower time frames. Moreover, this was in line with the downtrend in the higher time frame as shown on the daily chart.
The $152-$155 area has acted as resistance since Feb. 24. As of this writing, the price pushed north to USD 155.7 before tumbling to USD 150.4. This sharp rejection created a fair value gap (white) on the chart. This area had confluence with the resistance of the past ten days.
How much are 1, 10, 100 XMR worth today?
The OBV has been on an upward trend since March 4, when prices rose from $144. The RSI has also been above the neutral-50 for most of last week. However, in the house before going to press, the same registered a sharp dive.
Taken together, the evidence showed that demand has remained stable over the past few days. And yet, the strong break in structure means XMR can recoup most, if not all, of its recent gains. A short position can be considered if Monero sees a rejection around the FVG. Invalidating this idea would be a session closing above $155.7.
What does the cumulative volume delta say about demand?
Source: Coinalyse
Spot CVD has been on the rise in recent days. The attached 15-minute chart highlighted that despite the rising CVD, sentiment could have shifted in favor of the sellers. When Monero noticed a rejection near $155, the OI crashed. Nearly $3 million in OI evaporated to signal discouraged buyers – a sign that bearish sentiment had taken root.
If this trend of declining OI continues, it would support the bearish idea presented above. Therefore, the OI can help sellers to achieve a bias as well.