FTM’s short-term price action can only recover again if…

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or any other advice and is solely the opinion of the author

  • The Fed is likely to increase rate hikes to curb inflation
  • Macroeconomic headwinds could support FTM’s near-term price action

Phantom [FTM] fell below $0.42 following comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on March 7. Powell told the US Senate banking committee that inflationary pressures were much higher than expected.

The above position points to possible aggressive rate hikes. As expected, investors have priced in the comments as Bitcoin [BTC] dropped below $22K. Likewise, FTM and the rest of the altcoin market were also under continued selling pressure. FTM actually fell by 8.5% in the past 24 hours, according to to CoinMarketCap.

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The dive continues; where can investors make profits?

Source: FTM/USDT on TradingView

On the lower time chart (4 hours), FTM recovered before a price rejection claimed all of its gains. FTM’s mid-February price action formed a double-bottom pattern, a bullish formation that gave investors a 24% gain after retesting the $0.5951 overhead resistance.

However, due to the correction after the rejection, FTM has been written off by 35% at the time of writing. The decline marked a descending channel before FTM entered a consolidation range of $0.3944 and $0.4265 in recent days. The prevailing macroeconomic headwinds could support the decline below price consolidation.

Therefore, FTM could continue to oscillate between the highs and lows of the descending channel (orange). Short-term bulls may seek new buying opportunities at the channel’s mid-level or lower bounds of $0.3857 and $0.3552, respectively. The targets are the mid-level of the channel, the 13-period EMA, the 26-period EMA, or the upper limit of the channel.

On the contrary, short sellers can short the token if it fails to close above the mid-level of the channel and target the lower boundary. An extended drop below the channel can be monitored at $0.3162.

The OBV (On Balance Volume) has been fluctuating since mid-February, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has remained below 50 over the same period. It highlighted limited buying pressure as FTM traded within a range.

The funding rate fluctuated as MVRV turned negative

Source: Sentiment

According to Santiment, FTM’s funding rate has fluctuated in recent days, indicating unstable demand in the derivatives market. This has undermined a strong recovery or break of the price consolidation range. Similarly, month holders have settled all gains and sustained losses since mid-February. This can be demonstrated by the 30-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio.

Read Phantoms [FTM] Price prediction 2023-24

However, there seemed to be some short-term accumulation, as evidenced by a slight spike in exchange supply. It could indicate a possible price recovery if the channel’s mid-level ($0.3857) prevents further decline.

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